Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd097…93d0 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$3,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 140d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$3
crypto 7% −$10
world 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$24 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$3,097
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1 / 20
History coverage140d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $311 $314 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $308 $307 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $305 $302 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $259 $261 +$2 (+1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $250 $246 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $165 $164 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $164 $163 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $165 $153 −$12 (-7%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 63¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 88¢ 88¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-0%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 86¢ 86¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $125 $123 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $66 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will Austria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 17m
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $309 21m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $155 26m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 29m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 51m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 52m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $28 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $59 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $159 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $129 2h
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $127 2h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 88¢ $150 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $154 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $82 2h
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $128 2h
Will Austria reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $169 2h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 3h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 3h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $168 3h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $66 3h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 86¢ $126 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $51 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,097.05 · official $3,095.89 (match) · 48 history records