Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd092…9a30 other 967 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$347 (-2%) realized −$342 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%345W / 607L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$49
14 days+$181
30 days+$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$560
other 32% −$643
crypto 11% −$138
world 8% −$228
politics 0% −$32
finance 0% −$5
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -7.0% -15.9% 26% 24% -7.6%
≤30d 256 +2.6% -7.1% 34% 31% -3.2%
≤90d 450 -7.4% -16.2% 34% 28% -14.1%
all 952 -8.5% -17.2% 36% 29% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 29% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 24% -20.6%
15% -32.4% 21% -28.3%
20% -39.0% 17% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$342
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses345 / 607
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions11
Markets (closed)952 / 967
History coverage118d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 952 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Yes 17¢ 32¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+81%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa Pessoa be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$18 -87%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +91%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $22 −$2 -7%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 +$103 +1116%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$5 +103%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$46 +152%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $81 +$76 +93%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -20%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 +$25 +121%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $36 −$18 -51%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $58 −$23 -39%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 +$17 +36%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $29 −$17 -60%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$45 +81%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$29 +187%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$66 +216%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $19 −$2 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$19 -93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $80 +$42 +52%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -10%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 20m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 21m
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 30m
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 35m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 35m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 35m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $20 49m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 50¢ $20 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $15 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 32h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 35h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 28¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.51 · official $54.82 (match) · 3022 history records