Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd091…f4cf crypto 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$816 (-4%) realized −$816 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate82%267W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$87
14 days−$121
30 days−$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,008
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.2% -16.1% 83% 43% -16.3%
≤30d 282 -3.3% -12.5% 80% 70% -12.6%
≤90d 327 -3.5% -12.7% 82% 61% -13.5%
all 327 -3.5% -12.7% 82% 61% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 61% -13.5%
10% -21.0% 30% -21.8%
15% -28.7% 3% -29.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$60 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$816
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses267 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)327 / 327
History coverage34d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 327 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2AM ET Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6PM ET Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11AM ET Jun 05 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10AM ET Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8AM ET Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7AM ET Jun 05 $51 +$15 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.29 · official $63.29 (match) · 971 history records