Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd090…3bc5 weather 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$187 (+5%) realized +$201 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate64%35W / 20L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% −$28
sports 35% +$57
other 5% +$52
crypto 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -13.3% -21.6% 64% 35% -7.5%
≤30d 55 -13.3% -21.6% 64% 35% -7.5%
≤90d 55 -13.3% -21.6% 64% 35% -7.5%
all 55 -13.3% -21.6% 64% 35% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 35% -7.5%
10% -29.1% 22% -16.3%
15% -35.9% 15% -24.4%
20% -42.2% 9% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$201
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses35 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage6d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Yes 85¢ 78¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 47¢ 42¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Suzan Lamens 72¢ 68¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 51¢ 72¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+42%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$42 +79%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $53 −$13 -24%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $105 +$25 +24%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $42 +$14 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $47 −$3 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $52 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $52 +$17 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $167 +$27 +16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $141 +$24 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $161 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $152 +$10 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $129 +$23 +18%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $104 +$11 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$10 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$6 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$12 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$9 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$19 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$4 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 +$28 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$18 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 10? Jun 10 $95 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $88 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $85 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 19m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $53 33m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 35m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $40 5h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 72¢ $42 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 62¢ $53 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 7h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $42 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $130 11h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $42 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 98¢ $47 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $105 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 15h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $52 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 95¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 26h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $69 27h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 27h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $52 27h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $195 27h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $167 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 36h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $141 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $157.57 · official $157.57 (match) · 112 history records