Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D0 0xd08e…8766 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+13%) realized +$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +27.1% +15.0% 25% 25% +17.1%
≤30d 4 +27.1% +15.0% 25% 25% +17.1%
≤90d 4 +27.1% +15.0% 25% 25% +17.1%
all 4 +27.1% +15.0% 25% 25% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 25% +17.1%
10% +4.0% 25% +5.9%
15% -6.0% 25% -4.3%
20% -15.2% 25% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$10 · ×4.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$42 +408%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 22h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.36 · official $49.36 (match) · 9 history records