Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd08e…2f7c world 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14,851 (+7%) realized +$15,448 · open −$597
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%82W / 203L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$720per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$49
14 days−$86
30 days+$1,718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% +$17,136
other 2% −$661
sports 1% −$1,057
crypto 0% −$221
politics 0% −$31
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -20.8% -28.3% 31% 19% -8.2%
≤30d 38 +7.9% -2.4% 34% 29% +0.2%
≤90d 105 -6.2% -15.1% 37% 28% -8.1%
all 285 -14.3% -22.4% 29% 21% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 21% -1.9%
10% -29.9% 17% -11.3%
15% -36.6% 12% -19.9%
20% -42.9% 9% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$600) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$534 vs −$138 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$1,271
Realized+$15,448
Unrealized−$597
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses82 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)285 / 287
History coverage431d
Avg bet$720
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 22¢ 15¢ $1,768 $1,186 −$582 (-33%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? No 4¢ 4¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $100 +$14 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$22 -22%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $22 −$9 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $3,450 +$1,297 +38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,001 +$43 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $601 −$202 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $604 +$27 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$23 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $1,813 −$289 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $301 −$63 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $20 −$7 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $100 −$56 -56%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $600 −$175 -29%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $701 −$41 -6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $735 −$554 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $201 −$152 -76%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $120 +$25 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $676 +$180 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $100 +$79 +79%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $714 +$128 +18%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 03 $688 −$296 -43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $54 −$54 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $1,826 −$1,357 -74%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $1,436 −$403 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $1,949 +$1,122 +58%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $101 −$23 -22%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $200 +$433 +216%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $153 +$794 +518%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $251 +$1,821 +726%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $51 −$28 -55%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $416 −$42 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $414 +$494 +119%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? May 08 $50 −$42 -84%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $151 −$56 -37%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? May 05 $291 −$116 -40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 29 $194 +$140 +72%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 29 $148 −$6 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $10 +$9 +94%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? Apr 29 $50 −$47 -95%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 29 $109 +$40 +37%
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $15 −$13 -88%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Apr 29 $678 −$214 -32%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $100 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $7 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No 2¢ $71 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 63¢ $114 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 44¢ $78 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $100 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 57¢ $100 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 3¢ $50 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 6¢ $50 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 56¢ $100 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 44h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $44 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 13¢ $210 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 18¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 16¢ $100 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 51¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 49¢ $100 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 56¢ $189 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 60¢ $200 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 14¢ $173 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 69¢ $565 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 62¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,271.49 · official $1,272.94 (match) · 2425 history records