Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:51:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd08a…a178 crypto 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$110 (-8%) realized −$71 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%162W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$72
sports 32% −$71
weather 6% −$10
other 6% −$15
culture 2% $0
world 1% −$6
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -5.2% -14.2% 71% 41% -10.1%
≤30d 27 -13.2% -21.5% 59% 37% -13.0%
≤90d 254 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 34% -22.2%
all 300 -12.4% -20.8% 54% 38% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 38% -18.7%
10% -28.4% 22% -26.5%
15% -35.3% 14% -33.6%
20% -41.6% 8% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses162 / 138
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 301
History coverage97d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Qatar 70¢ $41 $2 −$39 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $35 +$6 +17%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $29 +$7 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $58 −$29 -50%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$8 -55%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$4 +45%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 28 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 29? May 28 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29? May 28 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 25 $27 −$9 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 9? May 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 10? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 10? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 10 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 10 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 10 $1 +$1 +124%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 10? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on May 9? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 9? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C or below on May 9? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 09 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $2 +$1 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 2? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 3? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 3? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $7 −$6 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 2? May 02 $2 +$6 +270%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Qatar 70¢ $42 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina 99¢ $42 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 84¢ $35 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 61¢ $34 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 61¢ $1 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 61¢ $1 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $29 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $29 23h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $58 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 60¢ $56 26h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $47 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 29h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $12 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $24 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $8 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $3 34h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 36h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $0 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 65¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.36 · official $2.36 (match) · 959 history records