Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd08a…cfe2 weather 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$83 (+3%) realized +$100 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%12W / 56L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$98
14 days−$98
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$133
sports 20% +$494
weather 12% −$207
world 4% −$8
crypto 4% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 18 -52.6% -57.1% 22% 22% +19.4%
≤90d 68 -12.1% -20.4% 18% 18% -6.5%
all 68 -12.1% -20.4% 18% 18% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 18% -6.5%
10% -28.1% 18% -15.4%
15% -35.0% 15% -23.6%
20% -41.4% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$10 · ×5.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses12 / 56
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage90d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $65 $49 −$16 (-24%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $67 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? May 31 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? May 31 $26 −$25 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $356 +$531 +149%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $102 +$31 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 30 $10 +$10 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28? May 30 $10 +$8 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 28? May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 28? May 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 28? May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 04 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 12? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 12? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 12? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 12? Apr 13 $1 +$11 +1064%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on March 24? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 27? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on March 24? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on March 25? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 24? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on March 24 Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 23? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C or below on March 25? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 24? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 28? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 24? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on March 25? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 23? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 25? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 24? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 24? Apr 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 24? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 14d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 4¢ $10 15d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 5¢ $51 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $63 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $67 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $67 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 20d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 40¢ $26 20d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $81 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 59¢ $133 21d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 21d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 24d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 28? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 28? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 24d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 24d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 39¢ $52 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.93 · official $98.00 (match) · 303 history records