Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd089…a5ef world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-3%) realized −$29 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%12W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
other 15% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 3% −$27
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 44 -2.3% -11.6% 27% 0% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -12.7%
10% -20.0% 0% -21.0%
15% -27.8% 0% -28.6%
20% -34.9% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses12 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage290d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $120 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $7 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $6 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 11 $10 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 10 $10 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025? Sep 08 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $40 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $35 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 65¢ $13 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $23 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $25 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $28 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $2 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $20 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $20 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $41 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.75 · official $38.75 (match) · 202 history records