Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd088…e538 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-1%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$13
politics 13% −$6
other 4% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$74
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +0.7% -8.9% 16% 5% -10.3%
≤90d 32 -5.7% -14.7% 16% 3% -16.1%
all 46 -4.2% -13.3% 20% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -10.0%
10% -21.6% 2% -18.6%
15% -29.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage592d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 +$8 +114%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6? May 07 $27 $0 +2%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $61 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $24 +$1 +3%
Ducks vs. Senators Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Blues vs. Hurricanes Mar 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 11 $47 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $90 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Feb 09 $89 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 19 $13,567 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $12 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $273 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $559 −$3 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $780 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $441 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 5h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 25h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 29h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $13 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $7 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 11d
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.94 · official $40.94 (match) · 218 history records