Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd087…b390 politics 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,635 (+6%) realized +$1,919 · open −$284
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate49%54W / 56L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$231
other 15% +$2,259
crypto 7% −$145
tech 7% −$403
world 5% −$299
sports 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -25.0% -32.2% 46% 34% -11.1%
≤30d 41 -25.0% -32.2% 46% 34% -11.1%
≤90d 41 -25.0% -32.2% 46% 34% -11.1%
all 110 -9.0% -17.7% 49% 37% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 37% -3.6%
10% -25.6% 23% -12.8%
15% -32.7% 15% -21.3%
20% -39.3% 13% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$59 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$1,194
Realized+$1,919
Unrealized−$284
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses54 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)110 / 128
History coverage602d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 71¢ 49¢ $802 $551 −$251 (-31%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 81¢ 77¢ $177 $168 −$9 (-5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 86¢ 90¢ $92 $96 +$4 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? No 96¢ 98¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $86 $72 −$14 (-16%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 82¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $38 $30 −$8 (-20%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 52¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $163 −$58 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 17 $483 −$14 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $115 −$6 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $184 +$39 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $191 +$19 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $288 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $254 −$50 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$38 +172%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $394 +$6 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $129 +$6 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 11 $203 +$11 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 11 $297 +$31 +11%
Rockets vs. Cavaliers Nov 21 $58 +$21 +36%
Will Trump say "Strong peace" during Saudi PM events on November 18? Nov 19 $174 +$22 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $120 −$59 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $276 +$83 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $6 −$5 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $199 +$18 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 14 $150 +$50 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 14 $147 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 2m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 11m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 14m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $95 15m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 15m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 19m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 56¢ $32 19m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 72¢ $36 19m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 19m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $15 20m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 21m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 21m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 24m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 24m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 24m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 25m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 90¢ $468 26m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 36¢ $24 30m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 30m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 31m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $100 31m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 31m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $51 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $36 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,194.20 · official $1,166.24 · 840 history records