Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd087…e4e4 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$25
14 days−$32
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$29
sports 22% −$15
politics 8% −$8
economics 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$9
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage139d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $642 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $644 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $337 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $551 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $767 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $416 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $780 −$2 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $340 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,136 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $617 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $603 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $283 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $638 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $76 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $155 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $266 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $694 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $433 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $658 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $284 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $167 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $482 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $442 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $71 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $71 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 4h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 6h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 7h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $71 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $71 11h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $34 14h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $34 16h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $71 20h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $72 22h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $72 23h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $72 24h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $72 29h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $72 30h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $72 33h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $72 35h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 38h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $72 42h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 44h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $72 47h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $72 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $72 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $73 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $73 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1380 history records