Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

D0 0xd084…9ef9 other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$96 (+13%) realized +$333 · open −$237

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day6.3pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-36.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-29.3%	-36.0%	50%	50%	+20.8%
≤30d	4	-29.3%	-36.0%	50%	50%	+20.8%
≤90d	4	-29.3%	-36.0%	50%	50%	+20.8%
all	4	-29.3%	-36.0%	50%	50%	+20.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.0%	50%	+20.8%
10%	-42.1%	50%	+9.3%
15%	-47.7%	50%	-1.3%
20%	-52.8%	0%	-11.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$7 · ×7.23 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.23 per $1 lost it wins $7.23

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$11

Realized+$333

Unrealized−$237

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day6.3

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$6	$6	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	58¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	65¢	0¢	$237	$0	−$237 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$145	+$57	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$44	+43%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$9	−$4	-44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$6	3m
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$5	6m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$240	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	91¢	$240	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$202	16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$202	16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$145	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	97¢	$145	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL No	99¢	$10	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY No	49¢	$5	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	53¢	$4	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.18 · official $11.18 (match) · 13 history records