Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd084…434c crypto 686 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$135 (-12%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%229W / 457L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$208
sports 0% +$15
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -27.4% -34.3% 27% 26% -34.1%
≤30d 203 -20.4% -28.0% 31% 30% -24.5%
≤90d 686 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 32% -25.6%
all 686 -19.1% -26.8% 33% 32% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 32% -25.6%
10% -33.8% 31% -32.7%
15% -40.2% 28% -39.2%
20% -46.1% 25% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses229 / 457
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)686 / 686
History coverage61d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 686 Trades
no open positions (378 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1466%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 2¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 3¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1294 history records