Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd083…35e3 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$16
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 38% -14.5%
≤30d 16 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 38% -14.5%
≤90d 16 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 38% -14.5%
all 16 -9.8% -18.4% 56% 38% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 38% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 19% -22.6%
15% -33.3% 19% -30.1%
20% -39.8% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-1.5) Senegal 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$14 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$7 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 30m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $10 42m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 42m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.72 · official $29.72 (match) · 59 history records