Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd082…29e4 other 197 markets active 0h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$473 (-11%) realized −$474 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%119W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$178
sports 38% −$681
politics 4% +$11
world 4% +$16
crypto 2% −$4
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -7.7% -16.5% 69% 49% -4.7%
≤30d 40 -7.6% -16.4% 68% 48% -5.1%
≤90d 47 -10.9% -19.4% 66% 49% -33.1%
all 195 -10.2% -18.7% 61% 34% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 34% -19.4%
10% -26.5% 17% -27.1%
15% -33.6% 5% -34.1%
20% -40.1% 1% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$474
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses119 / 76
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)195 / 197
History coverage393d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 +$2 +4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$3 +13%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +34%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2 $0 +20%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 $0 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$3 +22%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +34%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $8 $0 -3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 +$2 +25%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $23 +$2 +9%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $11 +$3 +24%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 +$2 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -72%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +104%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $27 $0 -2%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 19 $413 −$411 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $298 +$115 +38%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $93 −$92 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $81 +$12 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $48 +$8 +16%
Argentina vs. Zambia: Both Teams to Score Apr 01 $60 +$14 +23%
Argentina vs. Mauritania: Both Teams to Score Mar 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $52 +$7 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $45 +$10 +22%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 26m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 38m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 59m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $11 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $40 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 18h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 77¢ $3 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 18h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $1 18h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 86¢ $1 19h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 73¢ $1 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 90¢ $3 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 98¢ $16 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.50 · official $64.08 (match) · 689 history records