Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd080…95b8 crypto 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$655 (-5%) realized −$655 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$789per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% +$23
politics 39% −$680
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 18 -0.5% -10.0% 94% 0% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -13.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -22.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -29.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,016) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$681 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$655
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage614d
Avg bet$789
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,601 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $688 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,432 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $470 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,016 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,566 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $546 +$1 +0%
Will Sergei Syrankov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $240 $0 +0%
Will Anna Kanopatskaya win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 04 $305 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $5,029 −$681 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $2,601 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1,432 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $470 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $688 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,566 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,016 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? BUY No 100¢ $116 430d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? BUY No 100¢ $99 430d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $33 430d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 430d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 430d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 430d
Dogecoin all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 430d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 430d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $198 459d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $94 460d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $85 460d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $84 460d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $85 460d
Will Anna Kanopatskaya win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $305 515d
Will Sergei Syrankov win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $240 515d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 39¢ $4,009 604d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 39¢ $250 604d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 39¢ $89 604d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 45¢ $5,029 615d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records