Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd07d…10f7 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate31%23W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$10
other 22% −$1
sports 16% −$13
politics 14% −$2
economics 5% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 3% -10.5%
≤90d 70 +0.4% -9.1% 31% 4% -10.0%
all 74 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -10.4%
10% -17.9% 3% -19.0%
15% -25.8% 3% -26.8%
20% -33.1% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses23 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage490d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $68 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $9 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $54 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $23 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $113 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $114 −$6 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $14 +$3 +18%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $87 −$6 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $19 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $35 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $55 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $38 −$2 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $1 $0 -13%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $20 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 +8%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $134 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $32 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $32 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $9 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $13 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $7 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records