Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd07a…042d other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$43 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$20
sports 22% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.9% -17.6% 58% 50% -13.3%
≤30d 12 -8.9% -17.6% 58% 50% -13.3%
≤90d 12 -8.9% -17.6% 58% 50% -13.3%
all 12 -8.9% -17.6% 58% 50% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 50% -13.3%
10% -25.5% 50% -21.6%
15% -32.7% 42% -29.2%
20% -39.3% 33% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $13 −$13 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $27 +$12 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $19 +$18 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $13 +$1 +7%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $19 +$19 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $13 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $39 6h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $27 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $19 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 31h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $29 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 35h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $13 35h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $39 35h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $19 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.92 · official $21.92 (match) · 20 history records