Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd079…2c5d crypto 442 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$125 (-2%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%313W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$21
14 days+$4
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -3.1% -12.4% 72% 22% -11.2%
≤30d 265 -6.8% -15.7% 69% 20% -11.2%
≤90d 442 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 26% -11.7%
all 442 -3.7% -12.9% 71% 26% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 26% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 13% -20.1%
15% -28.8% 10% -27.8%
20% -35.8% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses313 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)442 / 442
History coverage37d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 442 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$22 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$17 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$12 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $12 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.56 · official $0.00 (match) · 1251 history records