Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd078…e2fb sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-1%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%26W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$15
other 35% −$98
tech 10% +$1
economics 8% +$1
crypto 7% +$1
politics 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 27 -3.3% -12.5% 96% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$896) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$103 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses26 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage192d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 01 $196 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 17 $196 +$1 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 27 $25 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 19 $24 +$1 +2%
Pistons vs. Pacers Apr 18 $24 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Clippers Apr 10 $24 $0 +2%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 490 Million subscribers by March 31? Apr 01 $903 +$1 +0%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mar 26 $902 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Clippers Mar 25 $899 +$3 +0%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $898 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $897 +$1 +0%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mar 09 $896 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $796 +$8 +1%
Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top globa Mar 04 $887 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of February Mar 01 $887 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $2.00? Feb 14 $886 +$1 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 12 above $235? Jan 17 $988 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 02 $45 $0 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $135 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $155 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $516 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $24 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $196 31d
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $196 44d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 100¢ $25 59d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 100¢ $25 63d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Magic 98¢ $24 68d
Pistons vs. Pacers BUY Pistons 100¢ $24 73d
Thunder vs. Clippers BUY Thunder 98¢ $24 77d
Pacers vs. Bulls BUY Pacers 100¢ $24 84d
Will MrBeast hit 490 Million subscribers by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $903 91d
Mavericks vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 100¢ $902 91d
Bucks vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 100¢ $899 93d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 100¢ $898 98d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $897 106d
Mavericks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 100¢ $896 108d
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 99¢ $796 110d
Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top globa BUY No 100¢ $887 115d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of February BUY Yes 100¢ $887 119d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $2.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $886 133d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 17¢ $103 155d
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 12 above $235? BUY Yes 100¢ $988 161d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $135 180d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $45 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $516 184d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 98¢ $24 184d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $57 192d
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $53 192d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $155 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.64 · official $196.64 (match) · 55 history records