trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| all | 27 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 96% | 0% | -10.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.5% | 0% | -10.2% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 0% | -26.6% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 0% | -33.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $100 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $97 | $97 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May | Jun 01 | $196 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? | May 17 | $196 | +$1 | +0% |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | Apr 28 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Apr 27 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Hornets vs. Magic | Apr 19 | $24 | +$1 | +2% |
| Pistons vs. Pacers | Apr 18 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Thunder vs. Clippers | Apr 10 | $24 | $0 | +2% |
| Pacers vs. Bulls | Apr 04 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MrBeast hit 490 Million subscribers by March 31? | Apr 01 | $903 | +$1 | +0% |
| Mavericks vs. Nuggets | Mar 26 | $902 | +$1 | +0% |
| Bucks vs. Clippers | Mar 25 | $899 | +$3 | +0% |
| Clippers vs. Pelicans | Mar 19 | $898 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 19 | $897 | +$1 | +0% |
| Mavericks vs. Raptors | Mar 09 | $896 | +$1 | +0% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Rockets | Mar 07 | $796 | +$8 | +1% |
| Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the top globa | Mar 04 | $887 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Silver (SI) settle over $40 on the final trading day of February | Mar 01 | $887 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $2.00? | Feb 14 | $886 | +$1 | +0% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Jan 20 | $103 | −$103 | -100% |
| Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 12 above $235? | Jan 17 | $988 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Jan 02 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Pump.fun all time high by December 31? | Jan 02 | $53 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Jan 02 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 02 | $135 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Jan 02 | $155 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 02 | $516 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jan 01 | $24 | $0 | +2% |