Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd074…1437 crypto 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$565 (-9%) realized −$565 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%34W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$132
14 days−$132
30 days−$786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$735
sports 1% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -38.7% -44.6% 38% 33% -19.5%
≤30d 45 -43.9% -49.2% 36% 33% -35.3%
≤90d 92 -24.5% -31.7% 37% 35% -24.8%
all 92 -24.5% -31.7% 37% 35% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 35% -24.8%
10% -38.2% 30% -32.0%
15% -44.2% 24% -38.6%
20% -49.6% 21% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$35 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage57d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $169 +$52 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $138 −$16 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $118 +$15 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $150 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $205 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $94 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $123 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$98 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $39 −$14 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $164 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $78 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$25 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$30 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$18 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 27 $57 +$28 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 27 $79 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 24 $143 −$139 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 24 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 24 $74 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 23 $96 +$55 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 23 $97 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 23 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 23 $128 +$107 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 23 $109 −$15 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 23 $60 +$34 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 23 $80 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $341 −$116 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 20 $156 −$153 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 20 $171 −$85 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $56 +$37 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 20 $189 −$90 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 20 $82 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $85 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 20 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 26 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 26 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 26 $95 +$36 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 26 $35 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $31 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $23 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $38 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $136 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $100 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $18 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $122 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $117 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $117 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $17 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $16 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $101 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $132 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $119 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $145 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $89 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $80 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $89 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $89 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $94 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records