Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D0 0xd073…b757 sports 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,188 (-5%) realized −$9,183 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%109W / 141L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,855now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$3,920
14 days−$4,267
30 days−$4,443
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$3,879
world 30% −$1,214
other 17% +$1,394
sports 14% −$3,638
tech 4% −$718
crypto 3% −$1,106
culture 0% −$70
economics 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -41.8% -47.4% 25% 25% -38.3%
≤30d 34 -39.4% -45.2% 26% 26% -36.8%
≤90d 43 -40.6% -46.2% 23% 23% -37.4%
all 250 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 34% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 34% -14.4%
10% -28.7% 26% -22.6%
15% -35.6% 18% -30.0%
20% -41.9% 12% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$196 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$1,855
Realized−$9,183
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses109 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions3
Markets (closed)250 / 253
History coverage592d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $1,000 $1,019 +$19 (+2%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $840 $835 −$5 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,810 −$213 -12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $693 +$167 +24%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,150 −$262 -23%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $265 +$141 +53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $302 −$300 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,517 +$737 +49%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $151 +$46 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $624 −$616 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$42 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $455 +$270 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $692 −$685 -99%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$16 -15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $566 −$229 -40%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $750 −$736 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $353 −$14 -4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Jun 14 $1,129 −$718 -64%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $222 −$218 -98%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $400 −$396 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $397 −$393 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $428 −$422 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $205 −$54 -26%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $755 −$64 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,390 −$614 -26%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $384 +$306 +80%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $359 +$98 +27%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $206 +$154 +74%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $128 −$126 -99%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $189 −$62 -33%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 29 $242 −$142 -58%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 10 $482 −$34 -7%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Apr 06 $10 +$2 +23%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $5,012 −$933 -19%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 03 $251 −$2 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 03 $400 −$6 -2%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 03 $605 −$599 -99%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Corentin Moutet vs Marco Trungelliti Apr 03 $430 −$424 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $484 −$456 -94%
Braves vs. Reds Aug 01 $91 +$20 +22%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July? Aug 01 $100 +$53 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Aug 01 $150 +$108 +72%
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31? Aug 01 $558 +$230 +41%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Aug 01 $1,552 +$235 +15%
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Jul 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Dodgers vs. Reds Jul 30 $79 −$79 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 93¢ $842 40m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $842 41m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 85¢ $720 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 16¢ $63 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $41 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $162 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $860 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 80¢ $693 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $692 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $887 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $888 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $405 26h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 96¢ $406 26h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $249 34h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 58¢ $20 34h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 73¢ $27 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $494 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $238 2d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,016 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,254 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $644 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $198 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $299 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $118 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $83 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,854.83 · official $1,854.83 (match) · 1152 history records