Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:31:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd071…92cc sports 808 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$812 (-10%) realized −$823 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%348W / 455L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$0
30 days−$931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$901
other 5% +$54
politics 0% −$6
crypto 0% $0
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.3% +12.4% 100% 100% +12.4%
≤30d 32 -18.5% -26.2% 53% 53% -41.2%
≤90d 190 +4.7% -5.3% 53% 48% -18.4%
all 803 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 42% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 42% -16.6%
10% -20.5% 39% -24.6%
15% -28.2% 35% -31.9%
20% -35.2% 32% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$823
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses348 / 455
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)803 / 808
History coverage218d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 803 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 20¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+132%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $17 $23 +$6 (+39%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 438 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm Jun 28 $50 +$12 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $336 −$274 -82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $255 +$40 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1,011 −$755 -75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 +$4 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group Jun 01 $191 +$29 +15%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs Ramzes Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Two Move - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $5 +$1 +23%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Two Move - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $5 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 01 $5 +$1 +11%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $5 +$2 +34%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner May 31 $5 +$3 +60%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner May 31 $5 +$3 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $25 +$33 +129%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $8 +$9 +124%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qual May 30 $131 +$21 +16%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $120 +$13 +11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Stray Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group May 29 $4 +$1 +42%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 +$3 +67%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $5 +$3 +60%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $5 +$3 +65%
Dota 2: NS Club vs Ramzes Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A May 28 $100 +$20 +20%
Dota 2: NS Club vs Ramzes Club - Game 1 Winner May 28 $5 +$6 +114%
Dota 2: Stariy Bog Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series G May 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 +$8 +158%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 +$12 +238%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Daxak Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group May 27 $5 +$2 +45%
Dota 2: Daxak Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 2 Winner May 27 $5 +$7 +146%
Dota 2: NS Club vs by Owl Club - Game 2 Winner May 27 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 80¢ $50 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 3¢ $31 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 2¢ $32 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 18¢ $284 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 13¢ $10 16d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $255 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 17¢ $256 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $8 17d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $4 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 68¢ $10 22d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $5 22d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 22d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $10 24d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,001 26d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $37 26d
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs Ramzes Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group A BUY by Owl Club 33¢ $4 26d
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group BUY Ramzes Club 87¢ $63 26d
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group BUY Ramzes Club 87¢ $82 26d
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group BUY Ramzes Club 87¢ $13 26d
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group BUY Ramzes Club 87¢ $33 26d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 42¢ $5 26d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Two Move - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 50¢ $5 26d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 64¢ $5 26d
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Two Move - Game 1 Winner BUY Enjoy 60¢ $5 26d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 81¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.54 · official $52.55 (match) · 1425 history records