Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd070…135f other 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-10%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$1
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.67 · official $8.67 (match) · 10 history records