Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D0 0xd06f…f8d5 world 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$4
sports 10% −$5
weather 8% −$1
other 5% $0
politics 4% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 6 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
all 19 -4.9% -14.0% 42% 5% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 5% -10.9%
10% -22.2% 5% -19.4%
15% -29.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -36.6% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $43 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $53 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $50 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +2%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on March 21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 9? Mar 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or below on March 10? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Un Mar 06 $12 +$4 +28%
Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky Mar 03 $17 −$5 -28%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $0 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $21 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $0 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $13 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $10 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $50 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $50 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $45 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $46 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $30 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $30 23d
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? BUY No 96¢ $1 369d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 392d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $2 407d
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? BUY No 97¢ $1 421d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $2 435d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes $1 451d
Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on March 21? BUY No 99¢ $14 454d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes $1 454d
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 454d
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $16 463d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.53 · official $42.53 (match) · 51 history records