Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D0
0xd06f…6719
weather · 254 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,699 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,540 · open −$159
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,163
Realized−$2,540
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses92 / 424
Open positions41
Markets (closed)516 / 254
History coverage15d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day234.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 41 History 516 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,395
7 days−$2,761
14 days−$2,607
30 days−$2,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 96¢ $166 $166 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 93¢ 100¢ $138 $149 +$11 (+8%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $131 $127 −$4 (-3%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $110 $77 −$33 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? No 78¢ 76¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Yes 22¢ 25¢ $44 $50 +$6 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $54 $47 −$6 (-12%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump say "Sex" in June? No 50¢ 82¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June 13? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $22 $39 +$18 (+82%)
Will Trump say "Regarded" in June? No 50¢ 64¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+29%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 11¢ 8¢ $45 $32 −$14 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? No 65¢ 64¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump say "Regarded" in June? Yes 50¢ 36¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-29%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 13¢ $5 $16 +$10 (+192%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+56%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Yes 50¢ 22¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Will Trump say "Sex" in June? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? No 79¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Yes 50¢ 30¢ $11 $7 −$5 (-41%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+33%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 13 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on May Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 27? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 20? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 1? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on May 20? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on May 30? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27? Jun 13 $10 −$15 -142%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24? Jun 13 $44 −$60 -137%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on May 5? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on May 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 32°C on May 12? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 23? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 26? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 27? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 26? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 29? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on May 5? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on May 20? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on May 1? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or higher on May 15? Jun 13 $13 −$14 -105%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ma Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27? Jun 13 $11 +$175 +1592%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 20? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 3? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 15? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 26? Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on May 29? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 5? Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C or higher on May 18? Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 37°C or higher on May 12? Jun 13 $166 −$166 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on May 20? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 21? Jun 13 $32 −$38 -119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% +$1,559
other 2% −$5
politics 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 100¢ $100 19m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 100¢ $45 28m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 32m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 33m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 40m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 53m
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 384 -60.9% -64.6% 12% 8% -31.0%
≤30d 516 -44.6% -49.9% 18% 12% -20.6%
≤90d 516 -44.6% -49.9% 18% 12% -20.6%
all 516 -44.6% -49.9% 18% 12% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover234.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.9% 12% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -54.7% 9% -28.2%
15% -59.0% 8% -35.1%
20% -63.1% 7% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,162.85 · official $1,162.99 (match) · 3500 history records