Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd06f…d4a6 other 449 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 265d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$192,214 (+37%) realized +$192,663 · open −$449
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate65%280W / 152L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,149per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$17,946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,774
7 days−$6,766
14 days−$6,526
30 days−$4,739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$26,447
world 16% +$2,642
crypto 15% +$94,372
tech 12% +$7,342
finance 4% +$16,832
economics 3% +$2,241
politics 1% +$5,766
sports 1% −$425
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -64.8% -68.2% 20% 2% -31.7%
≤30d 69 -39.0% -44.8% 38% 3% -14.1%
≤90d 77 -34.0% -40.3% 43% 8% -10.1%
all 432 +53.4% +38.8% 65% 27% +21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.8% 27% +21.4%
10% ← realistic here +25.5% 17% +9.8%
15% +13.4% 13% -0.8%
20% +2.3% 10% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$749) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +52% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$566 vs −$67 · ×8.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.02 per $1 lost it wins $16.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$17,946
Realized+$192,663
Unrealized−$449
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses280 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions58
Markets (closed)432 / 449
History coverage266d ⚠
Avg bet$1,149
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $7,095 $7,309 +$214 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 95¢ 77¢ $3,974 $3,210 −$764 (-19%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,793 $1,802 +$9 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 89¢ 88¢ $1,505 $1,488 −$17 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 15 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $735 $751 +$16 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $567 $577 +$11 (+2%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 88¢ 97¢ $438 $483 +$45 (+10%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $384 $380 −$4 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of June 15 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $363 $370 +$7 (+2%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 Week of June 15 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $226 $217 −$9 (-4%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $930 Week of June 15 2026? No 50¢ 68¢ $148 $205 +$57 (+38%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $840 Week of June 15 2026? No 87¢ 85¢ $196 $191 −$5 (-3%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of June 15 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $176 $177 +$1 (+1%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of June 15 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $163 $157 −$6 (-4%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $510 Week of June 15 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $138 $144 +$6 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 Week of June 15 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 Week of June 15 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $335 Week of June 15 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? No 90¢ 98¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.003 before August? Jun 17 $1,110 −$1,336 -120%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,600 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by September 30? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.73 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $109,500 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.94 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 17 $1,547 −$2,092 -135%
USDT depeg in 2025? Jun 17 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -103%
Will $YZY hit $10B FDV by Friday? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $212 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
China x Philippines military clash by December 31? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.67 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2025? Jun 17 $58 −$53 -91%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jun 17 $105 −$174 -166%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $196 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.004 before August? Jun 17 $232 −$388 -167%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,500 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. collect between $1t and $2t in revenue in 2025? Jun 17 $3 +$19 +633%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Ethereum all time high by August 31? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025? Jun 17 $378 −$378 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.88 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump resign today? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Se Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO in 2025? Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.91 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $194 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $214 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,350 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August? Jun 17 $749 −$1,062 -142%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.70 on August 31 at 12PM ET? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jun 17 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost $1,500 or more? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 16 $12,632 +$304 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $3,307 +$31 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $337 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $840 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 86¢ $132 47m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 96¢ $385 49m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 77¢ $3,737 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 78¢ $390 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $748 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $9 11h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 94¢ $221 12h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 12h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 94¢ $163 12h
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $777 14h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $870 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 14h
Ebola pandemic in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $143 14h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 16h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $880 16h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 89¢ $445 16h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $180 16h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $59 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY No 98¢ $5 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 96¢ $5 26h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 37h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 37h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6,442 38h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6,435 38h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 93¢ $221 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,946.14 · official $17,942.76 (match) · 3500 history records