Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd06b…816a other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$224 (-50%) realized −$223 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$45
14 days+$37
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$213
crypto 24% −$10
sports 21% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +154.0% +129.8% 100% 100% +32.5%
≤30d 13 -21.9% -29.3% 31% 31% -60.0%
≤90d 16 -36.5% -42.6% 25% 25% -62.3%
all 16 -36.5% -42.6% 25% 25% -62.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 25% -62.3%
10% -48.0% 25% -65.9%
15% -53.1% 12% -69.2%
20% -57.7% 12% -72.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$20 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$223
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage50d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $98 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $51 +$12 +23%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $40 +$13 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4 +$18 +442%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $63 58m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 83¢ $53 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $99 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 62¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $4 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $5 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 16d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 16d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 18d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 18d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 18d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? BUY Up 22¢ $4 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.44 · official $96.44 (match) · 23 history records