Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd066…2981 weather 882 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$199 (+0%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate94%824W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$174
politics 1% +$20
other 1% +$15
sports 1% −$26
crypto 0% +$8
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
culture 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 95% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 66 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 204 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 879 -2.6% -11.9% 94% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 1% -9.6%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$15 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses824 / 55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)879 / 882
History coverage590d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 879 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $294 $295 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $85 $85 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $424 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $104 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $368 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $448 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $265 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $264 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $196 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $363 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 4? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $428 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 1? Jun 02 $325 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $186 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $197 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $265 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $147 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on May 31? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $322 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $467 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 27? May 28 $457 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $73 59m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $85 59m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $221 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $109 25h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $424 41h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 92¢ $36 41h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 94¢ $57 41h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 94¢ $6 41h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $104 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $119 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $250 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $208 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $131 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $212 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $238 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $448 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $145 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $200 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.10 · official $458.10 (match) · 2937 history records