Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D0 0xd064…c8d0 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$80 (+47%) realized +$131 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +170% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +134% what you keep after slip
Net edge+134%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$73
other 34% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+143.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +169.6% +143.9% 100% 100% +143.9%
≤30d 1 +169.6% +143.9% 100% 100% +143.9%
≤90d 1 +169.6% +143.9% 100% 100% +143.9%
all 1 +169.6% +143.9% 100% 100% +143.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +143.9% 100% +143.9%
10% +120.6% 100% +120.6%
15% +99.2% 100% +99.2%
20% +79.7% 100% +79.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +170% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +170% · $-wt +170% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $56 $38 −$18 (-33%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $56 $23 −$33 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $54 +$91 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $54 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $58 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $58 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.03 · official $61.03 (match) · 4 history records