Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd064…c4d1 crypto 944 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9,020 (-11%) realized −$8,898 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%754W / 102L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day92.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4,981now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$1,525
world 16% +$875
other 11% −$507
finance 2% −$324
sports 2% −$985
economics 1% +$152
tech 0% +$13
politics 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -4.7% -13.8% 76% 37% -7.1%
≤30d 856 -3.4% -12.6% 88% 12% -12.0%
≤90d 856 -3.4% -12.6% 88% 12% -12.0%
all 856 -3.4% -12.6% 88% 12% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 12% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 7% -20.4%
15% -28.6% 4% -28.1%
20% -35.6% 2% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$58 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$4,981
Realized−$8,898
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses754 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions114
Markets (closed)856 / 944
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day92.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 114 History 856 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Yes 97¢ 94¢ $1,545 $1,492 −$54 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $718 $744 +$26 (+4%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? Yes 99¢ 92¢ $207 $194 −$13 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $184 $191 +$6 (+3%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%? Yes 99¢ 80¢ $152 $123 −$29 (-19%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $109 $107 −$2 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 80% and 82.5%? No 99¢ 84¢ $107 $91 −$16 (-15%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 92¢ 98¢ $84 $90 +$6 (+7%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 92¢ 97¢ $83 $87 +$5 (+6%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 97¢ $59 $69 +$10 (+17%)
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 90¢ 98¢ $63 $68 +$5 (+9%)
Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 95¢ 98¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 89¢ $42 $54 +$12 (+28%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 72¢ 97¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+19%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-0%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 97¢ 93¢ $49 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 93¢ 95¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 91¢ 98¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+8%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 68¢ 66¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 98¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $130 +$20 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $93 +$7 +7%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -100%
Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $9 +$1 +14%
Will KB Home (KBH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korn Ferry (KFY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 23 $200 −$5 -2%
Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 23 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Wells Fargo fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will BNY fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will Santander fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $22 +$7 +34%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 23 $8 +$2 +26%
Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals Jun 23 $35 +$3 +7%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-Ju Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $33 +$7 +22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $194 +$6 +3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 22 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6 +$4 +67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 +$2 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $94 −$8 -9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $39 +$31 +81%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $63 +$22 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $302 +$24 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $164 +$47 +29%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $10 $0 +4%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-J Jun 20 $1,667 +$167 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 59m
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL No 100¢ $20 59m
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 90¢ $22 59m
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 59m
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL No 100¢ $60 59m
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 90¢ $0 59m
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $56 59m
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL No 100¢ $13 1h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 1h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 95¢ $68 1h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL No 100¢ $87 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will Jefferies (JEF) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? BUY Yes 99¢ $109 1h
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $27.5B? BUY Yes 99¢ $207 1h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 80% and 82.5%? BUY No 99¢ $107 1h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%? BUY Yes 99¢ $104 1h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be between 82.5% and 85%? BUY Yes 98¢ $48 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $88 1h
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- SELL No 100¢ $476 2h
Will Paychex (PAYX) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 23¢ $3 14h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 14h
Will KB Home (KBH) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 100¢ $60 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,980.51 · official $4,980.52 (match) · 3500 history records