Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D0 0xd060…ce4f other 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,668 (+8%) realized +$1,027 · open +$641
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 37L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$16,250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,391
7 days+$1,646
14 days+$1,646
30 days+$1,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$2,061
sports 10% −$25
crypto 8% +$326
world 1% −$221
politics 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +26.6% +14.5% 31% 31% +18.7%
≤30d 42 +26.6% +14.5% 31% 31% +18.7%
≤90d 43 +25.4% +13.5% 30% 30% +18.6%
all 54 +17.1% +6.0% 31% 31% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 31% +15.7%
10% -4.2% 30% +4.6%
15% -13.4% 30% -5.5%
20% -21.9% 24% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$74 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$16,250
Realized+$1,027
Unrealized+$641
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions40
Markets (closed)54 / 94
History coverage200d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $660 $852 +$192 (+29%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 52¢ $731 $808 +$77 (+11%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $642 $741 +$99 (+15%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $657 $739 +$82 (+12%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $605 $727 +$123 (+20%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $700 $685 −$15 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $608 $670 +$62 (+10%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $630 $664 +$34 (+5%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $680 $651 −$29 (-4%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $749 $641 −$107 (-14%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 21¢ 23¢ $589 $636 +$47 (+8%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $480 $611 +$131 (+27%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 74¢ $553 $611 +$58 (+10%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $600 $606 +$6 (+1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $585 $599 +$14 (+2%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $521 $581 +$60 (+11%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $430 $539 +$109 (+25%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $658 $513 −$145 (-22%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $456 $500 +$44 (+10%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $490 $488 −$2 (-0%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 64¢ $545 $483 −$62 (-11%)
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $545 $472 −$73 (-13%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $415 $432 +$18 (+4%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 69¢ $464 $416 −$48 (-10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $342 $350 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $123 +$399 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $105 +$410 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $121 −$120 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $82 −$80 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $126 +$63 +50%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $53 +$467 +874%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 +$731 +712%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $385 +$282 +73%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $128 −$125 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $82 −$80 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $151 −$150 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $448 −$80 -18%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $148 −$145 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $399 −$6 -2%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $237 +$427 +180%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 +$290 +565%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $299 +$201 +67%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $274 −$170 -62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $51 +$191 +372%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $366 +$237 +65%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $209 −$205 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $142 −$138 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $356 +$389 +109%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 −$150 -98%
Jazz vs. Bulls Apr 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Dec 16 $4 $0 -7%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Dec 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 16 $42 +$6 +14%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in December? Dec 15 $26 +$12 +48%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14? Dec 14 $3 +$7 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Egypt 15¢ $15 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $23 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $296 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $128 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) SELL Egypt 15¢ $16 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) SELL Egypt 15¢ $30 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Egypt 16¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 2h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $91 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $102 8h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $123 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $121 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 8h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $102 8h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $105 9h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 19h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 19h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $126 30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,249.92 · official $16,250.14 (match) · 408 history records