Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd05f…9009 weather 358 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$206 (+11%) realized +$203 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%145W / 207L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day82.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$150
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% +$172
sports 32% +$39
other 13% −$37
crypto 2% −$5
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +22.0% +10.4% 35% 31% +5.2%
≤30d 352 +8.8% -1.6% 41% 34% -3.0%
≤90d 352 +8.8% -1.6% 41% 34% -3.0%
all 352 +8.8% -1.6% 41% 34% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 34% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 27% -12.3%
15% -19.6% 21% -20.7%
20% -27.5% 18% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses145 / 207
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)352 / 358
History coverage16d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day82.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 84¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Yes 46¢ 57¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 22 $3 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 22 $4 +$11 +255%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 22 $11 −$6 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 18? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 22 $7 −$6 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 22 $8 +$12 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -89%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -94%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $3 +$4 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$11 +424%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 +$24 +387%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$17 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$5 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 20 $2 +$3 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 19? Jun 20 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$8 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$4 +94%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 −$5 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 22? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 25h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $3 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 21? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.15 · official $26.15 (match) · 1551 history records