Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd05d…d4f7 other 394 markets active 8h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$65 (-3%) realized −$64 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%246W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$23
world 24% −$41
crypto 3% −$12
politics 2% −$6
sports 2% −$7
culture 1% −$20
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.2% -14.2% 64% 55% -14.5%
≤30d 51 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 59% -12.5%
≤90d 134 -21.3% -28.8% 55% 50% -21.7%
all 379 -2.9% -12.1% 65% 50% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 50% -12.5%
10% -20.5% 35% -20.9%
15% -28.2% 25% -28.5%
20% -35.3% 18% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses246 / 133
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)379 / 394
History coverage630d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+53%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $2 $0 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $2 $0 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 06 $2 $0 +21%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina May 30 $2 $0 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 29 $2 $0 +3%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $2 +$1 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 28 $3 $0 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $4 $0 +12%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $52 +$3 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Arthur Fils May 23 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 23 $2 $0 +12%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $3 $0 +11%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $1 $0 +18%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will France vs. Senegal BUY 1¢ $1 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 23¢ $1 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 44¢ $1 40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 72¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 14¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 6d
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.86 · official $14.85 (match) · 798 history records