Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:59:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd05c…ea2c sports 350 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,331 (-10%) realized −$1,404 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%207W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$236
30 days−$1,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,324
other 8% −$137
crypto 5% +$57
world 5% +$49
politics 2% −$32
tech 2% +$64
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -2.5% -11.8% 55% 54% -10.5%
≤30d 242 -3.8% -12.9% 59% 47% -22.3%
≤90d 342 -8.8% -17.5% 60% 46% -19.0%
all 346 -8.5% -17.2% 60% 46% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 46% -19.0%
10% -25.2% 34% -26.7%
15% -32.4% 27% -33.8%
20% -39.0% 20% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized−$1,404
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses207 / 139
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions4
Markets (closed)346 / 350
History coverage142d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 40¢ 64¢ $121 $192 +$71 (+59%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 54¢ 50¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $69 +$21 +31%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $161 +$39 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 +$1 +18%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $10 +$16 +163%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $1 +$7 +733%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $40 +$5 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $67 +$29 +44%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $44 +$10 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $47 +$23 +50%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $52 +$28 +54%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $18 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $9 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $112 +$28 +25%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $6 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $157 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $17 +$2 +14%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $6 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $7 +$3 +51%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $4 +$6 +122%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $36 +$24 +68%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $6 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $6 +$3 +54%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $18 +$12 +66%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $13 +$7 +56%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $12 +$18 +150%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $12 +$8 +67%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$10 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $90 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $16 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $33 9h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 26¢ $10 10h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $6 12h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $20 13h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 70¢ $7 14h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $2 14h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 16¢ $2 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 20¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $6 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $1 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $3 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $3 15h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Kiwoom DRX 25¢ $7 16h
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Kiwoom DRX 3¢ $1 16h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $22 16h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Dplus KIA 97¢ $10 17h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Dplus KIA 85¢ $8 17h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $44 22h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 22h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.50 · official $225.59 (match) · 1084 history records