Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd05b…3bf2 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$729 (-9%) realized −$283 · open −$446
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$68est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,145
other 16% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.4% -14.4% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 1 -5.4% -14.4% 0% 0% -14.4%
≤90d 32 -21.6% -29.1% 47% 31% -19.3%
all 32 -21.6% -29.1% 47% 31% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 31% -19.3%
10% -35.9% 16% -27.0%
15% -42.1% 9% -34.1%
20% -47.8% 6% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$99 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$446
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$68
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage86d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ $446 $0 −$446 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $447 −$24 -5%
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 15 $105 −$104 -99%
Udinese Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $65 +$21 +32%
Counter-Strike: EC BANGA vs m1x (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series May 02 $25 +$10 +40%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) May 02 $501 −$500 -100%
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5) May 01 $502 +$66 +13%
76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5 Apr 30 $291 −$291 -100%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $37 −$27 -73%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF end in a draw? Apr 26 $500 +$85 +17%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $300 +$231 +77%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sensation (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia- Apr 26 $81 −$3 -3%
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) Apr 26 $388 +$45 +12%
Noskova vs. Samsonova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Apr 26 $400 −$14 -3%
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $11 +$1 +8%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $380 +$216 +57%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Atreides (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eur Apr 25 $244 −$8 -3%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europ Apr 25 $165 −$14 -9%
Spread: Hertha BSC (-2.5) Apr 19 $368 +$31 +8%
Spread: Liaoning Tieren FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Henan FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $366 +$19 +5%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-03-29? Apr 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Dejounte Murray: Assists O/U 6.5 Apr 18 $199 −$199 -100%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-04-01? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-1.5) Apr 18 $274 +$34 +12%
Spread: Shandong Taishan FC (-2.5) Apr 18 $294 +$44 +15%
Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-2.5) Apr 17 $267 +$26 +10%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) Apr 16 $216 +$51 +24%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Apr 03 $235 −$19 -8%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Tochigi SC: O/U 4.5 Apr 01 $300 −$65 -22%
Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $154 2h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $297 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $423 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $447 2h
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $105 36d
Udinese Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $65 49d
Counter-Strike: EC BANGA vs m1x (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series SELL m1x 100¢ $35 49d
Counter-Strike: EC BANGA vs m1x (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series BUY m1x 71¢ $25 49d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) BUY Shanghai Haigang FC 91¢ $501 49d
Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5) BUY Chengdu Rongcheng FC 88¢ $502 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 110.5 BUY Over 47¢ $291 53d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 55d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 55d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $8 55d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $25 55d
Will Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $585 55d
Will Real Oviedo vs. Elche CF end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $500 55d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? SELL No 100¢ $531 55d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? BUY No 56¢ $300 55d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sensation (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia- SELL Sensation 49¢ $79 55d
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) SELL Yunnan Yukun FC 100¢ $433 55d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sensation (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asia- BUY Sensation 50¢ $81 55d
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) BUY Yunnan Yukun FC 90¢ $300 55d
Noskova vs. Samsonova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 SELL Under 50¢ $386 55d
Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) BUY Yunnan Yukun FC 88¢ $88 55d
Noskova vs. Samsonova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $400 55d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 55d
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $300 56d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 56d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-04-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $596 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.34 (match) · 76 history records