Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd05a…7df8 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$141 (+2%) realized +$80 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate57%54W / 40L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$16
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$155
sports 25% −$26
crypto 20% +$16
finance 13% +$13
world 1% $0
politics 1% −$26
economics 1% +$9
tech 1% +$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -21.7% -29.2% 50% 18% -9.2%
≤30d 49 +6.9% -3.3% 57% 24% -8.3%
≤90d 59 +6.2% -3.9% 63% 20% -8.1%
all 94 -4.5% -13.6% 57% 24% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 24% -8.4%
10% -21.9% 17% -17.2%
15% -29.4% 13% -25.2%
20% -36.3% 11% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$1,023
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses54 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)94 / 113
History coverage249d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $320 $319 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 94¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $84 $95 +$10 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 94¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 74¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 52¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 $0 +31%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $501 +$35 +7%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,121 +$32 +3%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 20, 11PM ET? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $701 +$19 +3%
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5) Jun 20 $200 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +474%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 18 $1 $0 -15%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $100 +$15 +14%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $500 +$15 +3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 11AM ET? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $500 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin above 66,000 on June 16, 10AM ET? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin above 65,800 on June 16, 10AM ET? Jun 16 $101 +$4 +4%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$15 +302%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $1 +$6 +601%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the announcers say "Yellow Card" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 13 $140 +$2 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 08 $34 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 98¢ $536 2h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $1 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes $1 3h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 4h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 95¢ $10 20h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 90¢ $20 27h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $1 30h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 31h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $80 32h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 32h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 36h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,121 42h
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 20, 11PM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 52¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,023.33 · official $1,023.33 (match) · 284 history records