Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd058…8c21 crypto 313 markets active 13h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate66%205W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day54.8pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$68
14 days−$88
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$109
other 6% +$11
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 -1.4% -10.8% 67% 36% -11.1%
≤30d 312 -1.7% -11.1% 66% 35% -11.7%
≤90d 312 -1.7% -11.1% 66% 35% -11.7%
all 312 -1.7% -11.1% 66% 35% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 35% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 13% -20.2%
15% -27.4% 5% -27.9%
20% -34.5% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses205 / 107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)312 / 313
History coverage18d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day54.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $29 −$11 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.05 · official $18.05 (match) · 1207 history records