Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd057…ec76 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$178 (+4%) realized +$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$57
economics 3% −$31
other 1% −$28
world 1% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +29.9% +17.5% 100% 100% +17.5%
≤30d 3 +162.4% +137.4% 100% 67% +129.6%
≤90d 3 +162.4% +137.4% 100% 67% +129.6%
all 31 -13.0% -21.3% 48% 29% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 29% -5.8%
10% -28.8% 19% -14.8%
15% -35.7% 13% -23.0%
20% -42.0% 10% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +154% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$22 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage129d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $63 +$19 +30%
Will Great Britain record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 06 $20 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 06 $36 +$164 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 05 $444 +$170 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 05 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 05 $222 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Mar 05 $63 +$19 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 05 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 05 $186 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 05 $17 +$23 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 05 $46 +$4 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 4 Feb 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 4 Feb 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 13 $4 +$6 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 11 $307 +$26 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 11 $505 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 11 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 11 $163 +$20 +12%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during meeting with Netanyahu? Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 11 $315 −$11 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $95 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 10 $360 +$29 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 10 $628 −$14 -2%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $15 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $30 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $29 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $17 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $17 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $30 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 233 history records