Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:06:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D0 0xd055…28d0 sports 819 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$50,034 (+16%) realized +$49,984 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%386W / 501L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$381per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$4,480est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,705
7 days−$5,611
14 days+$2,185
30 days+$1,865
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$33,353
other 3% +$4,118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -60.4% -64.2% 16% 16% -29.4%
≤30d 257 -13.7% -21.9% 33% 32% -7.8%
≤90d 884 +13.3% +2.5% 44% 41% +0.9%
all 887 +13.0% +2.2% 44% 41% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.2% 41% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.6% 40% -8.8%
15% -16.5% 38% -17.6%
20% -24.7% 35% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$394 vs −$236 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$1,799
Realized+$49,984
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses386 / 501
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4,480
Open positions5
Markets (closed)887 / 819
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$381
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 887 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $1,075 $1,045 −$30 (-3%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Yakult Brothers 41¢ 41¢ $563 $563 +$0 (+0%)
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Over 32¢ 66¢ $83 $170 +$87 (+105%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 65¢ 46¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-30%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Bebop 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 401 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Pigeons vs 8Sins - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Playoffs Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Shpilit (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs HMBLE (+1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Cl Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 34.5 in Game 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs OlyBet SB (BO1) - Roman Imperium Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs MOUZ NXT - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Dota 2: AVULUS vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Liquid (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playof Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs struggletony (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Dota 2: Team Stels vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs ex-Zero Tenacity (+1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - CCT South Ameri Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Tricked (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs KUUSAMO.gg - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Map Handicap: ALL (-1.5) vs los kogutos (+1.5) Jun 17 $196 −$196 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 17 $225 −$225 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FriendlyCampers (BO3) - Stake Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South Amer Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $19 −$43 -228%
Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 32¢ $85 54m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,090 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 56¢ $396 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 66¢ $328 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 65¢ $129 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 65¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 65¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 65¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $28 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $148 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $664 2h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 52¢ $5 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 41¢ $573 9h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 17¢ $80 11h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $1,209 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $862 28h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 31¢ $8 34h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY HyperSpirit 33¢ $27 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $303 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $190 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $323 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 54¢ $21 2d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,798.92 · official $1,825.30 · 3500 history records