Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D0 0xd053…6c25 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$383 (-34%) realized −$319 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$448
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% -52.5%
≤30d 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% -52.5%
≤90d 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% -52.5%
all 4 +8.8% -1.5% 75% 75% -52.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 75% -52.5%
10% -11.0% 75% -57.0%
15% -19.6% 75% -61.2%
20% -27.5% 0% -65.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$518 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$319
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 50¢ $300 $236 −$64 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $522 −$518 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $158 +$72 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $320 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $158 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.71 · official $245.24 · 10 history records