Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd053…307a crypto 471 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,960 (+16%) realized +$2,378 · open −$418
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%228W / 242L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$1,101
14 days+$1,655
30 days+$1,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$1,607
other 21% −$138
crypto 7% −$138
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +32.6% +20.0% 83% 67% +8.8%
≤30d 32 -9.9% -18.5% 47% 44% +8.1%
≤90d 470 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 43% +5.6%
all 470 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 43% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 43% +5.6%
10% -24.3% 38% -4.5%
15% -31.7% 29% -13.7%
20% -38.4% 23% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,252
Realized+$2,378
Unrealized−$418
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses228 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions1
Markets (closed)470 / 471
History coverage65d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 68¢ $1,670 $1,252 −$418 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,010 +$664 +66%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $405 +$289 +71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,510 −$803 -53%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,515 +$133 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $998 +$817 +82%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $571 +$465 +81%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $31 +$23 +74%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 Jun 06 $369 +$76 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 23 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 23 $5 +$3 +51%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $101 −$99 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $56 −$55 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $76 −$20 -26%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 104.5 May 21 $74 −$73 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $186 +$145 +78%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 21 $61 +$60 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $74 −$73 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $41 −$27 -67%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 20 $61 −$48 -79%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $51 +$71 +139%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 19 $19 +$17 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $19 −$12 -63%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 19 $30 −$18 -60%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5 May 18 $71 +$89 +124%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $51 +$53 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $20 +$20 +101%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 16 $66 +$36 +54%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 May 16 $61 +$45 +74%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 208.5 May 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 16 $30 +$24 +78%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $31 +$46 +151%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 16 $51 −$23 -45%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 14 $51 −$4 -7%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $63 +$26 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $38 +$10 +26%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 13 $17 +$16 +91%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 May 12 $15 +$22 +145%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5 May 12 $81 +$89 +109%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1,675 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,674 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,010 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $695 5h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 37¢ $707 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,510 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 41¢ $1,647 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $1,515 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 85¢ $1,815 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $998 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 89¢ $1,007 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $540 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $28 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 61¢ $53 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 SELL Over 99¢ $444 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 SELL Over 34¢ $21 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 203.5 BUY Over 82¢ $369 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $30 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $31 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $3 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,252.50 · official $1,252.50 (match) · 1103 history records