Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:52:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd052…563d sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$614 (-5%) realized +$185 · open −$799
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$786per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$160est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$762
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 54% -9.2%
≤30d 13 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 54% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 54% -9.2%
all 13 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 54% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 54% -9.2%
10% -15.6% 54% -17.9%
15% -23.7% 54% -25.8%
20% -31.2% 54% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$696 vs −$806 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$799
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$786
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 67¢ $600 $574 −$26 (-4%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $774 $1 −$773 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $79 −$78 -99%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $797 −$720 -90%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $781 +$728 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $586 −$577 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,214 −$1,200 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,031 +$784 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,171 +$1,045 +89%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $661 +$851 +129%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $578 +$374 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,113 −$1,100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $614 +$486 +79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $599 +$604 +101%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,178 −$1,160 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $605 2m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $785 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $79 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Iraq 6¢ $78 4h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 59¢ $797 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $781 11h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $586 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1,214 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,815 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,031 29h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1,171 33h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 43¢ $661 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $578 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $1,113 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,101 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $614 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,204 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $599 2d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $1,178 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.04 · official $581.87 · 23 history records