Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd050…d6bc sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$115 (+16%) realized +$115 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$237
other 21% −$127
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +21.6% +10.0% 67% 67% +10.5%
≤30d 6 +21.6% +10.0% 67% 67% +10.5%
≤90d 6 +21.6% +10.0% 67% 67% +10.5%
all 6 +21.6% +10.0% 67% 67% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 67% +10.5%
10% -0.5% 67% -0.0%
15% -10.1% 67% -9.7%
20% -18.9% 33% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$64 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $94 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $97 +$40 +41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$28 -55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $69 +$78 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $79 +$40 +50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $100 +$79 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $49 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $96 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 5h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 23¢ $23 8h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $97 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $51 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $18 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 16h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $29 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $179 29h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $100 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.23 · official $207.23 (match) · 18 history records