Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

D0 0xd04f…22ea sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$31 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +67% what you keep after slip

Net edge+67%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$91per market

Trades / day7.9pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+74.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+92.4%	+74.1%	47%	42%	-21.2%
≤30d	19	+92.4%	+74.1%	47%	42%	-21.2%
≤90d	19	+92.4%	+74.1%	47%	42%	-21.2%
all	19	+92.4%	+74.1%	47%	42%	-21.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+74.1%	42%	-21.2%
10%	+57.4%	42%	-28.8%
15%	+42.2%	42%	-35.7%
20%	+28.3%	37%	-42.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +92% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +15% → late +162% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$56 vs −$68 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$111

Realized−$31

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage5d

Avg bet$91

Trades / day7.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$112	$111	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$35	−$31	-90%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$102	−$99	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$66	+$38	+58%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$32	−$31	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$96	+$44	+46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$112	+$95	+85%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$74	−$73	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$101	−$100	-99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$71	+$55	+78%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	Jun 14	$172	−$170	-99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	Jun 14	$101	+$82	+81%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$381	+$23	+6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Jun 13	$51	+$36	+71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14?	Jun 13	$31	−$8	-26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13?	Jun 13	$31	−$16	-51%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner	Jun 12	$51	+$44	+88%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$51	+$84	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$113	41m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4	48m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	1¢	$2	49m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$4	55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	25¢	$51	56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	1¢	$1	58m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	13¢	$31	59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	49¢	$51	3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$103	3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	29¢	$32	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$66	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$140	9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$96	16h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	99¢	$190	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	26¢	$51	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	14¢	$0	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	SELL Justin Gaethje	11¢	$17	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	37¢	$61	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$74	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Gen.G	54¢	$101	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1	37¢	$102	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	99¢	$126	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	55¢	$71	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	BUY Gen.G	50¢	$71	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	BUY Gen.G	62¢	$101	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	SELL Gen.G	99¢	$183	2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner	BUY Gen.G	54¢	$101	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$404	3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$381	3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	SELL Gen.G	99¢	$87	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.11 · official $110.96 (match) · 41 history records