Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd04d…870c sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$215 (+5%) realized +$200 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$352
14 days−$270
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$228
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -56.5% -60.7% 20% 20% -80.0%
≤30d 16 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 44% -15.5%
≤90d 35 -1.2% -10.6% 51% 51% -0.8%
all 37 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 49% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 49% -5.4%
10% -23.5% 49% -14.4%
15% -30.9% 46% -22.7%
20% -37.7% 41% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$92 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage95d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 33¢ 38¢ $82 $96 +$14 (+17%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 47¢ 48¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $174 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $105 −$104 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $46 +$54 +117%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $73 −$72 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$26 +105%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $116 +$154 +133%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $84 +$116 +138%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $328 +$172 +52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $102 +$107 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $139 −$137 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $86 −$86 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 30 $147 +$102 +70%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $305 +$195 +64%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $113 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $69 +$131 +188%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $127 +$173 +136%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $235 +$185 +79%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Apr 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $128 +$72 +56%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $64 +$83 +129%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $72 −$70 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 20 $380 +$116 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - CCT South America Apr 19 $110 +$46 +42%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - CCT South Americ Apr 19 $137 +$102 +75%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $146 +$52 +36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 5.5 Corners AND Norway vs. France: Franc BUY 31¢ $31 1h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 33¢ $82 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $95 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $174 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 24¢ $61 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $105 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $73 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $46 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $102 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $9 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $102 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $11 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $0 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $6 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 10¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $27 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $0 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 17¢ $4 12d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $15 12d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $69 12d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $61 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $328 15d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $102 15d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $139 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.25 · official $221.34 · 93 history records