Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd04d…2e97 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$115 (-8%) realized −$277 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$255
7 days−$277
14 days−$277
30 days−$277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$296
crypto 24% −$19
sports 14% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -32.7% -39.1% 38% 31% -25.9%
≤30d 29 -32.7% -39.1% 38% 31% -25.9%
≤90d 29 -32.7% -39.1% 38% 31% -25.9%
all 29 -32.7% -39.1% 38% 31% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.1% 31% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -44.9% 28% -33.0%
15% -50.2% 17% -39.5%
20% -55.1% 14% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$277
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage3d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $49 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$26 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $136 +$44 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $188 −$155 -83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $36 +$24 +65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $33 −$15 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$21 -82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$35 +54%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $44 +$11 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $144 −$99 -69%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $99 −$6 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 −$75 -93%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $33 −$2 -7%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$18 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$8 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$10 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $34 +$4 +11%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.85 · official $43.86 (match) · 130 history records