Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D0 0xd04d…e8a9 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$13
politics 18% −$12
other 3% −$18
sports 1% −$25
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +3.0% -6.8% 12% 6% -7.7%
≤90d 47 -10.1% -18.7% 26% 13% -12.4%
all 60 -8.1% -16.9% 23% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 10% -9.9%
10% -24.8% 10% -18.5%
15% -32.1% 10% -26.4%
20% -38.7% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage591d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $9 +$5 +50%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $47 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $6 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +72%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $11 +$8 +75%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $25 $0 +1%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 02 $22 +$21 +96%
Senators vs. Lightning Mar 29 $33 +$23 +70%
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm: O/U 131.5 Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 26 $23 +$14 +61%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $94 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Feb 27 $96 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 30h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 31h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 28d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 29d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.50 · official $11.50 (match) · 255 history records