Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd04c…9036 crypto 35 markets active 9h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16,225 (-14%) realized −$16,225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,245per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,183
7 days−$5,212
14 days−$5,212
30 days−$5,212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$5,002
crypto 15% −$11,444
politics 11% +$237
other 4% +$80
economics 1% −$72
sports 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -68.9% -71.9% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 3 -68.9% -71.9% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤90d 6 -37.2% -43.2% 33% 0% -14.9%
all 34 -34.1% -40.4% 41% 21% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.4% 21% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -46.1% 9% -29.9%
15% -51.3% 6% -36.7%
20% -56.0% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$789) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$856 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage291d
Avg bet$3,245
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 29 $75,926 −$5,183 -7%
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - BLAST R6 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs DarkZero Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Majo Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 16 $18 −$5 -26%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? May 05 $3,342 +$200 +6%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? May 05 $3,047 +$90 +3%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Mar 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Feb 23 $11,751 +$168 +1%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $575 −$55 -10%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $26 −$9 -35%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $244 +$6 +2%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 23 $789 +$61 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 21 $1,656 −$1,142 -69%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $1,748 −$1,264 -72%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $10,312 −$6,930 -67%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Dec 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 27 $88 +$6 +7%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 25 $24 −$14 -62%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in November? Nov 19 $255 −$216 -85%
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025? Nov 18 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $755 +$260 +34%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in November? Nov 17 $2,575 −$2,154 -84%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 17 $18 +$6 +36%
Will Hyperliquid reach $60 in November? Nov 17 $30 −$18 -58%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 14 $148 +$72 +48%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Nov 05 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $17 +$2 +12%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Nov 02 $30 +$5 +18%
Grokipedia released by October 31? Oct 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 27 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? Oct 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 13 $27 −$19 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $70,744 9h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombi BUY 24¢ $20 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $4,074 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $42,984 22d
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs DarkZero Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Majo BUY FaZe Clan 71¢ $19 44d
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - BLAST R6 BUY Twisted Minds 42¢ $10 44d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 44d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 49d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $3,541 55d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3,137 55d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 93d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $51 109d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? SELL No 98¢ $11,918 126d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28,773 142d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $565 142d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 99¢ $127 143d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 99¢ $123 143d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $102 143d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $477 143d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $219 143d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 143d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 143d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 98¢ $400 143d
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 98¢ $1,068 143d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $62 145d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1,226 145d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $128 145d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $226 145d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $151 145d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $282 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 479 history records